The Undiscovered Lie (another one)

The Principle of Imminent Collapse includes the ramifications of the Undiscovered Lie when it is ultimately discovered. Great men and women have fallen from positions of power and influence because of the dishonesty of their actions. They may have righteously gained that position of power and influence only to lose it. Others would never have amounted to anything unless they employed the Lie in the first place. The men and women of this nation's police departments are no less likely to fall to their Undiscovered Lies.

Nazi Germany employed the Lie to dramatic and tragic affect by convincing the world, or at least enough of it, that they were being beneficial to the greater good by persecuting the Jewish population, Roma, Hungarians, persons with disabilities and all sorts of other classifications of people. They were mechanical and efficient in their exterminations of large numbers of people so much so that many people in the world could not grasp the reality of it. Even today there are those people who refuse to believe the magnitude of the killing.

The Catholic Church has been reeling from the Undiscovered Lie since the first revelations of child abuse, pedophilia, and homosexuality hit the headlines revealing the size and scope of the transgressions of present priests and the men who later became bishops and cardinals. The church hierarchy actively engaged to cover up and dismiss the allegations while transferring the offenders from one location to another in a pious shell game. Men who were looked up to with high admiration for their godliness and piety were exposed for the sins they committed with worldly impunity for decades.

If you look at the reports that police officers file relating to their shift work and the people they arrest, one would see that every beaten suspect was resisting a righteous arrest, every suspect who was gunned down by one or more officers were responding to "threatening gestures", the appearance that the person had a weapon, he lunged at the officer, the suspect actually did have a weapon that mysteriously disappeared or was produced even though the dead suspect had no previous history of crime, carrying a weapon, etc.

Every bruised or bashed face was the suspects' own doing to try to gain sympathy or cast the Police in a bad light. This is what the reports all say.

Witnesses who contradict the official version of events are suspected of siding with the suspect for racial reasons, or mere hatred of the police. Prosecutors and juries like to side with the police just to be sure that a violent criminal doesn't escape justice.

With the advent of the ubiquitous cell phone video cameras tangible evidence is surfacing that demonstrates what previously would have been an Undiscovered Lie. Police officers arrest people, take them in for processing and write an arrest report that fits all the facts that they need in order to justify the arrest. In the past there would not be any way to contest the veracity of the accuser. Now, however, after the report is filed and in the computerized system, it is less vulnerable to being adulterated. Then the video evidence shows up and proves the officer lied.

With the Lie now discovered, it becomes the officers' and co-conspirators task to spin a plausible timeline and story out of that is now presented before them. Each frame of the video is perused for any indications that the interpretation made by the accused is somehow wrong. The Police Department seeks to obfuscate on the basis that "we don't see what lead up to this altercation or what happens after the recording stops. A case in point is a recent arrest by two DC Transit officers who yank a black man out of his powered wheelchair and throw him on the sidewalk ventilation grating of one of the subway lines. The hand cuff him and leave him laying on the pavement with profusely bleeding facial lacerations. All the while a bystander videos the events until he is forced to retreat. Amazingly a district judge refused to indict the officers for any sort of mistreatment of this man.

The #Occupy protests all over the nation and indeed the world has relied heavily on these video recordings to expose the Undiscovered Lies that police are using to justify their mistreatment of citizens. Video clips first show up on the Internet. After that they become of interest to prosecution and defense attorneys alike in the courtroom.

The actions of prosecutors and judges seem incongruous in light of the tangible persistent imagery that proved that a police officer lied. He may also have perjured himself if he spoke his lies in the court. The courts are not interested in maligning the "other good works" of officers who have gotten caught lying.

If a prosecutor pursues a case against officers, he will not be later able to rely on them or their fellow officers when they are needed. Just keep in mind that the job of a prosecutor is to convict the accused whether he is guilty or not. He or she only has the evidence provided by the police to go by. If officers fabricate a case, the prosecutor doesn't want to know about that.

The Undiscovered Lie has farther reaching ramifications too. If an officer lies to get a conviction in one case, he might have done it before. He might do it again. This is just the same as the justification of overturning a guilty verdict when there is a preponderance of evidence that the convicted party is innocent of the crimes convicted of. After all, he must have been guilty of "Something." Maintaining the conviction does two things. It keeps the allegedly guilty person out of circulation and it keeps the prosecutors from having to review every case than might be tainted by an Undiscovered Lie. Nonetheless, the police officers are liars and impugn the integrity of every man and woman who wears the badge. When officers act by and for the powerful elite, they lose their honor as protectors of the citizens they are sworn to Protect and Serve.

It is possible that they always only served the powerful elite and service to the people may always have been a myth. The discovery of the Undiscovered Lies will alter the perceptions of even the most skeptical people among us.

Standard And Poor

The outrage that has been expressed at the very idea that S&P lowered the financial rating of the United States down a notch to AA+ is completely understandable.  We have never been so insulted by a private business like that before.  And they did this dastardly deed to us at a time we were vulnerable.  S&P kicked us while we were down.

What were they trying to prove?  We didn't default on our debt.  We have the resources to pay all our investors.  No body who even bought a T-Bill lost even a cent by buying those bonds.  So how does S&P figure that the US of A should be downgraded and removed from the coveted AAA club of the world?  Look at what they did by doing it.  The DOW dropped over 630 points the next trading session.  The NASDAQ dropped 174 points and the S&P 500 by 79 points.  Stocks and mutual funds lost billions in value on the very word that the downgrade meant something.

Was this action one that caused the selloff in the markets or merely preceded it?  Did they make the conditions or just report them?  Were they accurate in the assessment or did they lie or just get it wrong?  The Principle of Imminent Collapse has a connection via the Undiscovered Lie wherein a seemingly upstanding person or company is suddenly shown to be a fraud or not the pillar of society that he, she or it was supposed to be.  Our politics are filled with men who were great men one day and lying cheating misogynists the next.  The history of the financial sector is filled with companies who were riding high and making wealth for its investors until the CEO and/or a cadre of managers were shown to have been cooking the books.  The one day difference is the discovery of the Undiscovered Lie.  Jim Bakker fell from grace, as did Jimmy Swaggart.  Enron died an early death and likes of Michael Milkin saw the world from the inside of a Federal prison cell.  John Kerry became a bum over night over marital infidelity.  Bernie Maddoff made off with billions of dollars in his fraud scheme.  He was a great fund manager one day and an arch criminal the next.  The only way for him to operate was because of the Undiscovered Lie.

A variation of the Undiscovered Lie is the intentional misrepresentation.  Some portion of the mortgage meltdown that destroyed trillions of dollars of wealth came from intentional misrepresentations.  Real estate appraisers reverse engineered house appraised values by starting with the loan amount and backing into saying the value was high enough to cover the loan.  Mortgage loan agents started with what the old mortgage was and added all the cash out and fees to arrive at the new loan figure.  Everybody was making money with mortgages at inflated balances.  S&P rated the USA as AAA rating and left it there without much re-evaluation for decades.  Nobody wanted it to be anything else.  Nobody was arguing about massive budget cuts, no revenue increases, debt ceilings of any of the deadlocked issues now plaguing the American political scene.

Either S&P is now misrepresenting the health of US finances or it was misrepresenting it before.  The rating of AA+ as opposed to AAA is more a indicator of our financial health from this day forward not this day backward.  The rating we have is an indicator of our ability to manage the debt we have, the revenue streams and the expenses of our company.  Any company with a CEO who is being defied openly by the Board of Directors would not have a AAA rating.  Any company with a Board of Directors who is ideologically divided as is the US Congress would not get a AAA rating.  Any company that is failing to manufacture goods and provide services to generate wealth and value would not have a S&P AAA rating.  The United States of American cannot claim to be on the good side of any of those rating factors.  I am surprised that S&P still rates us AA+ and not far lower.

Loose Lips and The Principle of Imminent Collapse

Nature doesn't support the conditions that result in a domino effect because individual events over a long period of time serve to eliminate the interior dominoes that propagate the big collapse. 

Man creates domino sets and waits for one to be knocked over then proclaims surprise and outrage when they fall. He may also deny that he ever knew that the dominoes were all setup to fall and that his words or actions were complicit in initiating the collapse.

When there is a multitude of people making statements against a subject, it is very difficult to isolate which one or ones were instrumental in initiating actions against that subject.  Now if the subject is an idea or a law, it is appropriate to speak enthusiastically for and against the inanimate entity. But when the subject is the people who support and defend the law or idea, or those people who resist it, care must be taken to not incite action against the persons.  Indeed, it may only be the combination of causation that leads to the emergence of negative outcomes.

When a person has the ear of millions of people, that person has the responsibility to be judicious in their use of words.  The speaker of antagonistic and resentful rhetoric may not be able to be held responsible (in a legal sense) for the actions of their listeners, they are nonetheless responsible.

One can claim that it was not the intent to incite murder with such rhetoric as "reload" and "take aim" at the opposition, but those words were explicitly aimed at human beings who were running for public office.  They were not aimed at legislation that was being proposed for passage or repeal.  The national map that was published with reticules (gun sight symbols) pointed to the legislative districts where opposition candidates were running for office.  One can similarly deny that calling for the removal of opposition legislators and pointing them out on a map leads an unstable person to murder 6 people at a public legislative meeting.  The idea that a political candidate would invite constituents to come and shoot an M16 assault weapon as part of a highly contentious campaign, is appalling. However, the perpetrator of such virulent motivations cannot deny that she/he knows that somewhere out there in this nation of 307 million people that there is a significant number of loose cannons who will act upon that accumulation of rhetoric and commit violence as the result.

People who originate and propagate such language may not be convict-able of inciting murder, but they are nonetheless culpable in part for creating the conditions under which the murders were committed.  Very specific persons words are picked up and carelessly spread across the nation's airwaves.  Other less literate bloggers pick up on the words and construct a landscape of distrust, resentment and anger against individuals, some of whom now lay murdered or critically wounded.  U.S. District Judge John Roll is dead and U.S. Rep. Gabrielle Giffords is critically wounded by the man who put his and her thoughts into action.

Prominent people have acted to incite actions by members of the American public.  Whether or not one can draw a direct line between them and the shooter, Jared Lee Loughner, but as nothing happens in isolation, the seeds they have sown grew out into the mayhem at that Arizona Safeway market.

No promises for the Middleclass

Millions of people came to America to seek their fortunes and to raise their families in a land where it was possible to have a better life and pass that existence on to their descendants. This was a land unlike any other in the history of the world. This was a land of opportunity where anyone (well almost anyone) could strive, work hard and accumulate assets that would see you through your latter years and maybe have some remaining at your end that your children could inherit.

Under royal subjugation one could only accrue landed wealth at the pleasure of the throne. This landed wealth is the greatest asset that can be passed from generation to generation. It is the one medium of wealth that can gain value beyond any reason if someone wants to obtain it for themselves and there is a system of laws that recognize ones rights to buy, hold and sell such property.

Under Communist rule, there is no private ownership of real property and the only wealth a man can accrue is currency and control over family labor. One can hide away excess earnings and protect it from poachers, thieves and the government itself. Under Soviet rule, the national currency was periodically changed making the old currency worth only what the government chose for it to be worth. Until about the time of the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Ruble was not exchangeable for any other currencies. In this way the Russian people and the Russian Republics could not trade with the West.

In an economy that doesn’t recognize title to and ownership of property, there is no ability to earn an income greater than the labor market is willing to pay. In such systems there is no multi-million dollar or Ruble or Yaun salary for athletes to play a sport. There is no opportunity to write a song and get a few cents each time it is played on the radio, in a movie, or on the television. There is no way to derive monitory value from inventing an idea such as text messaging on a wireless hand-held electronic device and accumulating such vast wealth that descendants for many generations would not have to be part of the workforce, unless they want to be.

So people came to America and started their upward mobility through the officially classless society to become part of the vast Middleclass that everyone strives for unless they are already above that stratum by birthright or other good fortune. As upwardly mobile people we became quite accustomed to that idea that we were better off than the rest of the world. We had access to everything. We had energy. We had land and clear skies. We had the bread basket of the world in our backyard and could do anything we set our sites on.

Along the way someone forgot to tell us that such a social and economic situation may only be a respite from the work-a-day grind that most of the world experiences every day. We seem to have forgotten that we can fall a great distance from our perch far above the economic datum. No one ever said that ones place in the Middleclass stratum was guaranteed. We did think that one should never backslide into the realm of the poor.

The membership roster always had its ordinary level of churn. One man rises and another man slips back. One family gets the opportunity to buy a house, fix it up and send their children to good public schools. Another family loses its primary income when the automotive plant moves to another state. As long as the net membership level is maintained or grows slightly, the Middleclass itself is in a healthy place. The real trouble begins when the membership level decreases due to forces far beyond the ability of any member to counter.

Elizabeth Keebler-Ross described the five stages of dying that begins with denial. That is followed with anger, bargaining, grief and finally acceptance. A similar process works in all types of catastrophic losses. When other people observe the losses of people who have lost jobs and have few prospects for replacement, they seek to deny that there were external forces that could envelope them too. That unemployed person just did not want to work because it is so much easier to be paid to not work. That person doesn’t have the ‘work-ethic.’ That person feels he is too good to do a lesser job at lower pay. Anger ensues on everyone’s part. The unemployed person has to deal with the lack of income and the attitudes of people around him who call him a leech and a burden. The temporarily employed person is angry that he must pay the unemployment bill through taxation, debt creation and being prevailed upon to be charitable.

There are no quick fixes to be had for all the millions of unemployed people in this country. A 10% unemployment rate means about 14.5 million workers and possibly as many as 43.5 million additional family members who do not have gainful employment or access to private health care coverage. These 14.5 million unemployed people will be contending with the 200,000 or so new entries in the job market. Mature workers will be contending with the young for lower paying jobs that the business market will be offering.

This recessionary economic period has been a boon to the private sector that has been able to shed mass amounts of employees with the probable explanation that “it is the economy” that caused the reductions. When hiring is ramped up again, after just long enough to age out the former employees, wages and salaries will be substantially lower than they were when the job losses commenced. Benefits will be leaner. The job that any individual used to have is gone. A fresh new job is created in its place. Few people will be called back to the job they used to have and at the earnings they had become accustomed to. They will start all over and try to work their way back to their former status.

Analogously, private pension savings took the same hits. Many 401(k) and similar plans were decimated by three successive bubbles that burst. People who were on track for a well financed well planned retirement are now struggling to get their principle balances back to where they were in 2007. They who have the time, energy and continued employment may be able to rebuild their retirement balances before they reach an age where it is no longer possible. Many people are curtailing spending in favor of investing in their retirement accounts. Many people who are close to the date when they will cross over into retirement will not have a comfortable retirement.

Big decisions such as house buying are not on the mind of anyone who will retire in the next 15 years or less. Although they may have opted for a smaller dwelling after children are move out, the security of having that mortgage and a large paid in equity is a significant motivation to not attempt to move. With hoped-for prices at a low and continuing to fall, many home owners are waiting out the bad days of circa 2010. Another factor of not downsizing ones dwelling is the number of adult children who either remain at home or return there due to the lack of employment prospect even with a college degree. Living with ones parents in not part of the American Middleclass scenario. Adult children living with their parents may be a long term situation, one we become used to as part of what is the new normal. The multi-generational house may be on the comeback trail.

With all the millions of vacant foreclosed houses and the huge slowdown in new house construction, it is obvious that former single families have moved in with someone. They are not all living under the freeway over-pass and homeless shelters or cars.

There will be a huge psychological price to pay on all of this economic downturn. Few parents have ever had to prepare their children for the indignity of jobless parents, foreclosures and being looked upon as a burden. Even now the appearance of the insolvency of a family is kept quiet and is spoken about in hushed whispers. If there was a great conflagration such as war, flood, or earthquake, that lowered everyone equally, then there would be an easy explanation as to why the family is living so far beneath its former level. Lighting candles for light and bundling up in a cold room would be de rigueur.

America has been special for most of its history. That special nature was mainly attributable to its self reliance for food resources and energy. But after we outgrew those domestic resources and came to depend on the resources of other nations, we have made ourselves vulnerable to the reliability, availability and cost of those resources. Even as our consumption of energy has increased so has the consumption of the rest of the world. Their socio-economic standards have been steadily rising as ours have declined. They have become more Middleclass and the American Middleclass has diminished based on the mathematical principle of “average.”

There are only so much resources to go around. There is only a fixed amount of petroleum to get from the ground. Unless we develop an innovative solution to power and fund our lifestyle and/or modify that lifestyle we will continue to slide toward that average.

While the remainder of the world still envies living at that average, we view that average from the other side of the equal sign as wholly unacceptable.

Oil and Water and the Principle of Imminent Collapse

What you don't know about the Principle of Imminent Collapse will kill you. It will kill many people, animals and plant life on which we depend. One only ignores the Principle of Imminent Collapse at the peril of our lives.


The 2010 hurricane season is soon upon us and there is oil in that there water that will be spread over the land in a fashion never before seen. It is not a matter of if, but when the storm will come. There are 14 to 24 major storm events predicted by NOAA for this year. Hurricane intensity numbers of 2, 3, 4 and 5 will have a much lesser degree of importance than whether the storm track coincides with the oil-laden waters of the Gulf of Mexico and possibly the East coast of the US if the oil tracks around the southern tip of Florida.


Hurricane Rita roared into the Gulf of Mexico and then skipped across the southern portion of Florida from the Gulf side to the Atlantic side. Katina took aim at New Orleans and made a storm surge of 17 feet carrying gulf water far inland. Flooding raised toxins and petro chemicals from the rivers and out of the damaged industrial plants along the Mississippi River. Now that the "source water" is so heavily laden with crude oil, it will be pushed ashore and be lifted by the evaporation and convection forces of the storms that make their way into the Gulf. We may even see oily rain coating everything for hundreds of square miles of land area far from the Gulf Waters.



The rupture of the pipes at the Deepwater Horizon well and the resultant spew of crude into the water may only be the smaller portion of the damage done to the global environment. When the oil reached the coastal marshes and beaches, that is when the greater damage was done. The oceans do have a large albeit finite capacity to mitigate the oil itself. Oil is an organic compound and there are natural processes that will degrade it over time. There is also the "Dillution Solution" where if it is churned enough, the concentration will fall. But the halving effect of adding equal parts contaminated water to uncontaminated water may indeed reduce the concentration of the oil but it doesn't eliminate it. Time will do that part.


The problem with allowing time to solve this problem is that we have so little of it until the first tropical depressions start heading toward the Gulf and the oil there. The 75 to 100 mph winds of even moderate hurricanes will pick up the surface oil and whip it inland. Oil plumes, still deep in the water will be pushed landward and be heaped up on the shores in a manner like never before.


As of the early month of June 2010, the oil has only been in the Gulf waters. The ecological damage to the shoreline was 24 miles of beach and marsh. That would only be the beginning. Thirty-three percent of the Gulf waters were placed of-limits for fishing. What we say about the magnitude of this oil drilling blow out in October 2010 will be the more significant.


When an Engineer ignores the Principle of Imminent Collapse he/she can set off a catastrophe of global proportions. It is not very comforting to think that everything could end with someone tripping over the extension cord.


One could argue that it was not a terrible decision to circumvent a safety measure for a system that has a small change of needing to be activated while it is off-line. Ordering a small change in a complex mechanical system may seem innocuous , but doing that was the cause of the skywalk collapse in Kansas City Hyatt Regency in 2001 that killed 114 people in 1981. Writing a test procedure that involved using a candle flame to check for air leakage around foam insulation in a nuclear power plant almost touched off a disaster of Chernobyl proportions at the Browns Ferry nuclear facility in 1975. One could argue that the use of 20/20 hindsight is not a good predictor of future events.


Past performance is not an indicator of how well a stock will do in the marketplace, is what every financial advisor and purveyor of recommendations to buy has to say to cover their butts. This being true doesn't exempt professionals from the responsibility of looking into the near future and saying, "if I do THAT, will THAT come back to bite me?" All too often the question is asked, "what is the worst case scenario?" Almost as often, the answer is wrong. The Carlson Corollary says that Murphy was an optimist.

When Did It All Change?

When Did It All Change? posted: Dec 14, 2008

This question is posted across several blogs because it applies to all the subjects of those blogs. It's All Tuna begs the answer to when did everything become Tuna and why? The Principle of Imminent Collapse has presented many examples of the principle in action, but why is it that we repeatedly fail to do anything about it? Is THAT another of the characteristics of the PIC? And the Vulnerable Geometry is only vulnerable because we construct it that way. Why?

This post seeks to elicit examples of when it all began and what evidence, albeit in retrospect, can be seen that has led us from the Before to the Now. An example of this question and answer is thus: People driving on the road today are so rude, ignorant and aggressive that they endanger everyone around them and sometimes commit murder over simple things. When did this start and what caused it to happen?

With that in mind, what is the answer to these:

When and why did it become more important to make a profit than to make a product or service that made life better for people?

When and why has sex replaced love? Songs in the 1950s and earlier were all about love and relationships. The 1960s saw some transition. The 1970s and on it is sheer sex and show.

We used to see starving children and mobilize efforts to save Biafrans. Rock stars sang and did benefit concerts. We had Farm Aid. We had Feed the Children. Now we hardly even know the place called Darfur. What has happened?

If the answers were simple, we would have solved our problems already. But identifying the causes and the time line is an essential step in getting to that goal.

Vulnerable Geometry at Blogspot

Sustainable Geometry at Blogspot

It's All Tuna! at Blogspot

Principle of Imminent Collapse at Blogspot

www.itsalltuna-blog.com

www.ThePIC-Blog.com

When Regulators are In Bed with Business

When Regulators are In Bed with Business

The Principle of Imminent Collapse invariably shows up when the people who are supposed to inspect and report deficiencies and non-compliance to laws fail in the performance of that public trust. It would be one thing if the failure was due to inexperience and not knowing what the outcomes would be, but all too often the failure is due to a tacit agreement that the regulation is only for show and that no actual interference will be manifest.

Rampant Capitalist Buying and Selling leads to the Principle of Imminent Collapse. When one allows free-market forces to run amuck free from oversight, regulation and rationality, a crash is unavoidable. The fallacy of Laissez-faire is that it assumes that corporations are peopled with only honest and earnest directors, managers and staff. It would be true if emotions did not interfere. The role of government oversight is to reign in the adrenaline and testosterone fueled frenzy that emerges as a corporate personality trait when the wild ride begins.

There are two levels within each regulatory organization: The workers who see the everyday activities that they monitor; and there is the management level to which they report. While the front line workers usually want to do their job, it is the unstated position of the management that government needs to stay out of the process and let business prosper. Nobody wants to hold up the rollout of the latest jet aircraft. It will cost millions if there is a delay. We can’t have big businesses incur losses due to safety concerns that are only alleged anyway. No one has proven that three rivets instead of four really would make the wing fall off.

In the Soviet-era manufacturing environment, performance criteria were commanded. Without respect to capabilities of the factory to perform, they were told they will ship 1000 refrigerators per month. They had an inspector counting the units shipped. It always was 1000 units. The problem arose when the plant had only 900 compressors to install in the 1000 units. In that case 900 functional units were shipped along with 100 non-functional ones. The inspectors were satisfied and the economic planners vindicated that they were meeting the needs of the people.

So what happens when a mortgage finance institution needs to produce 10,000 new mortgages per month to package and sell to investors and they can only find 9,000 good qualified house buyers to sign on the dotted line? Well 90% of the mortgages were good and at cursory glance, all the T’s were crossed and the I’s dotted. Everything looked good until you dig deeper and discovered that many of the mortgagees did not have adequate income to assure confident repayment. Without actually visiting the dwelling, how would the reviewer know that the $400,000 price tag was $100,000 too high? They don’t. But someone certified that the dwelling was fit and suitably priced. Somebody fudged the numbers and the report. And no one was reviewing the performance of the appraisers. Everyone was making money and the economy was flush with discretionary funds to pay for all the stuff we Americans love to buy and consume.

Older people were able to retire to upscale communities like the Charlestown Village in Catonsville, MD or other Erickson communities or hundreds of other “active adult communities” and assisted-living communities. Children could go to college and private Christian high schools.

At the top management level of the finance banks, they were seeing dollar signs floating in their dreams, too. Multi-million dollar salaries, bonuses and stock options abounded. The measure of performance was not solid quality manufacturing and delivery, but it was how many units they could ship and put the price on their Accounts Receivable ledgers. This is were the Principle of Imminent Collapse meets the metaphorical Tuna. The two concepts are so intertwined that they are almost one Principle.